Current Projected Seat Count

LABOUR

28 -1

CONSERVATIVES

16 +5

PLAID CYMRU

12 ±0

ABOLISH THE WELSH ASSEMBLY

3 +3

LIBERAL DEMOCRATS

1 ±0

REFORM

0 new

GREEN

0 ±0

Potential Coalitions

Overview

Polls suggest that the current Labour-Liberal Democrat coalition will hold on to most of their seats, though Labour may seek to govern alone if they are close enough to a majority. Labour are forecast to lose 1 seat, and the Lib Dems will likely hold their 1 consituency seat but polls suggest that their popular vote share could fall to a record low.

The Conservatives are forecast to get 16 seats, up 5 from 2016. This would be a record high for them, reflecting a similarly strong showing from them in the Wales in the 2019 General Election.

Plaid Cymru, with their forecasted 12 seats, no change from 2016 and failing to make any inroads.

The Abolish the Welsh Assembly Party are forecast to get their first 3 seats in this election, having only been formed in 2015.

Reform UK (formerly the Brexit Party) and the Green Party are unlikely to get any seats. UKIP are very likely going to lose all 7 seats that they won in 2016.

Seats are allocated both by First Past The Post and Proportional Representation. There are 40 constiuencies that use FPTP and 5 Regions, each with 4 region-wide Members of the Senedd allocated to make the seat count more representative of the vote in each region.

Constituencies

div Tootltip

Regions

Seats Forecast to Change Hands

Vale of Clwyd

FORECAST: Conservative gain from Labour

Majority: 3.1%

Past Elections

2007
LAB

2011
LAB

2016
LAB

Vale of Clwyd has long been a marginal seat - the Westminster seat has changed hands at every election since 2015. The swing in both the 2017 and 2019 Westminster were almost completely in line with the swing in Wales as a whole. Despite this, however, Labour has held this Senedd seat since its inception (although in 2007 they won only with a majority of 0.8%).

Given that this seat tends to reflect the natinal swing in recent elections, it would be surpring if the Conservatives did not win this seat in an election where there was a swing from Labour to the Conservatives - as is expected. This is especially the case as the incumbent Labour MS since 1999 is not running for re-election.

Caerphilly

FORECAST: Plaid Cymru gain from Labour

Majority: 5.8%

Past Elections

2007
LAB

2011
LAB

2016
LAB

Caerphilly has historically been a very Labour seat, they have held the Westminster seat since 1918 and have won the Senedd seat in every election. However, Plaid Cymru have also seen strong support here despite never winning the seat, with 2016 seeing the smallest majority over Plaid in the Senedd seat due to a 6.7% swing from Labour.

Despite this being only the 4th most vulnerable Labour seat to Plaid Cymru by majority, it's possibly Plaid's most likely pickup given that there is a history of strong consistent Plaid Cymru support at the Senedd level as well as at the council level.

Wrexham

FORECAST: Conservative gain from Labour

Majority: 6.5%

Past Elections

2007
LAB

2011
LAB

2016
LAB

Wrexham was considered a safe Labour seat for long time, being held by the party at the Westminster level from between 1935 to 2019. However, in the last UK General Election it was one of 6 seats in Wales gained by the Conservatives, on a swing of 5.8%.

The seat has been trending towards the Conservatives throuhgout the 2010s and even a small national swing to the Conservatives would likely see this seat gained by the Conservatives.

Rhondda

FORECAST: Labour gain from Plaid Cymru

Majority: 14.7%

Past Elections

2007
LAB

2011
LAB

2016
PC

Despite at a Westminster level being a safe Labour seat since 1918, Plaid Cymru have won this seat twice at Senedd elections - in 1999 and 2016. Former Plaid Cymru leader, Leanne Wood, took this seat from Labour at the last election with a massive 22.2% swing.

This seat at first glance should be a realtively easy hold for Plaid Cymru. They have a somewhat large majority and with the MS being their former leader, they can expect something of an incumbency boost. However, their vote share has collapsed recently at Westminster elections - 2019 was their worst result since 1997 - which is why this seat is forecasted as a Labour gain. Despite, this Plaid still consistenly do better at Senedd elections than at Westminster and a decent result at the last council elections indicates that they could definitely still hold this seat.