PollCat

Nova Scotia Provincial Election 2021

Current Projected Seat Count

liberal

LIBERAL

29 -1*

conservative

PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVES

20 +2*

ndp

NDP

6 -1*

*Compared to notional 2017 result under new boundaries

Current Seat Count

Forecast Seat Count

Chance of Outcomes

Overview

On 17 August 2021, Nova Scotia is electing all 55 members of its provincial House of Assembly. Members are elected by First Past the Post in single member districts. This election is being held under new boundaries which also increase the amount seats from 51 to 55. The new boundaries slightly benefit the Liberals who would have won 30 seats under the 2017 result instead of 27 that they did win under the old boundaries; the Progressive Conservatives would've won 18 instead of 17.

The Liberal Party have been in power in Nova Scotia since 2013, having won the last two elections and hold a comfortable lead over the Progressive Conservatives in the few opinion polls that have been released. The Progressive Conservatives are the second largest party and haven't won an election since 2006. The New Democratic Party won their first election in the province in 2009 but fell to just 7 seats in the subsequent election.

The current polling suggests that there will be little change in vote share since 2017 and our forecast for seats refelects this. However, our forecast does have 14 seats changing hands, a reflection a different regional changes that are expected. Cape Breton (the smaller northeastern island) has been trending significantly to the right in recent elections and it's not unlikely that the Liberals lose all their seats there. On the other hand, the Liberals are exptected to do partiuclalry well in the Halifax metro area; the Progressive Conservatives might well lose all their seats here.

Halifax Sydney/Glace Bay New Glasgow

ANNAPOLIS - 2017 RESULT

2021 FORECAST

lib hold

ANTIGONISH - 2017 RESULT

2021 FORECAST

lib hold

ARGYLE - 2017 RESULT

2021 FORECAST

pc hold

BEDFORD BASIN - 2017 RESULT

2021 FORECAST

lib hold

BEDFORD SOUTH - 2017 RESULT

2021 FORECAST

lib hold

CAPE BRETON CENTRE–WHITNEY PIER - 2017 RESULT

2021 FORECAST

ndp hold

CAPE BRETON EAST - 2017 RESULT

2021 FORECAST

pc hold

CHESTER–ST. MARGARET'S - 2017 RESULT

2021 FORECAST

lib hold

CLARE - 2017 RESULT

2021 FORECAST

lib hold

CLAYTON PARK WEST - 2017 RESULT

2021 FORECAST

lib hold

COLCHESTER NORTH - 2017 RESULT

2021 FORECAST

lib hold

COLCHESTER–MUSQUODOBOIT VALLEY - 2017 RESULT

2021 FORECAST

pc hold

COLE HARBOUR - 2017 RESULT

2021 FORECAST

lib hold

COLE HARBOUR–DARTMOUTH - 2017 RESULT

2021 FORECAST

lib hold

CUMBERLAND NORTH - 2017 RESULT

2021 FORECAST

pc hold

CUMBERLAND SOUTH - 2017 RESULT

2021 FORECAST

pc hold

DARTMOUTH EAST - 2017 RESULT

2021 FORECAST

lib gain pc

DARTMOUTH NORTH - 2017 RESULT

2021 FORECAST

lib gain

DARTMOUTH SOUTH - 2017 RESULT

2021 FORECAST

ndp hold

DIGBY–ANNAPOLIS - 2017 RESULT

2021 FORECAST

lib hold

EASTERN PASSAGE - 2017 RESULT

2021 FORECAST

lib gain pc

EASTERN SHORE - 2017 RESULT

2021 FORECAST

lib hold

FAIRVIEW–CLAYTON PARK - 2017 RESULT

2021 FORECAST

ndp gain

GLACE BAY–DOMINION - 2017 RESULT

2021 FORECAST

pc gain ndp

GUYSBOROUGH–TRACADIE - 2017 RESULT

2021 FORECAST

pc gain lib

HALIFAX ARMDALE - 2017 RESULT

2021 FORECAST

lib hold

HALIFAX ATLANTIC - 2017 RESULT

2021 FORECAST

lib hold

HALIFAX CHEBUCTO - 2017 RESULT

2021 FORECAST

lib gain ndp

HALIFAX CITADEL–SABLE ISLAND - 2017 RESULT

2021 FORECAST

lib hold

HALIFAX NEEDHAM - 2017 RESULT

2021 FORECAST

ndp hold

HAMMONDS PLAINS–LUCASVILLE - 2017 RESULT

2021 FORECAST

lib hold

HANTS EAST - 2017 RESULT

2021 FORECAST

ndp gain

HANTS WEST - 2017 RESULT

2021 FORECAST

lib hold

INVERNESS - 2017 RESULT

2021 FORECAST

pc hold

KINGS NORTH - 2017 RESULT

2021 FORECAST

pc hold

KINGS SOUTH - 2017 RESULT

2021 FORECAST

ndp gain lib

KINGS WEST - 2017 RESULT

2021 FORECAST

lib hold

LUNENBURG - 2017 RESULT

2021 FORECAST

lib hold

LUNENBURG WEST - 2017 RESULT

2021 FORECAST

lib hold

NORTHSIDE–WESTMOUNT - 2017 RESULT

2021 FORECAST

pc hold

PICTOU CENTRE - 2017 RESULT

2021 FORECAST

pc hold

PICTOU EAST - 2017 RESULT

2021 FORECAST

pc hold

PICTOU WEST - 2017 RESULT

2021 FORECAST

pc hold

PRESTON - 2017 RESULT

2021 FORECAST

lib hold

QUEENS - 2017 RESULT

2021 FORECAST

pc hold

RICHMOND - 2017 RESULT

2021 FORECAST

pc gain lib

SACKVILLE–COBEQUID - 2017 RESULT

2021 FORECAST

lib gain ndp

SACKVILLE–UNIAKE - 2017 RESULT

2021 FORECAST

pc hold

SHLEBURNE - 2017 RESULT

2021 FORECAST

pc hold

SYDNEY–MEMBERTOU - 2017 RESULT

2021 FORECAST

pc gain lib

TIMBERLEA–PROSPECT - 2017 RESULT

2021 FORECAST

lib hold

TRURO–BIBLE HILL–MILLBROOK–SALMON RIVER - 2017 RESULT

2021 FORECAST

pc gain ndp

VICTORIA–THE LAKES - 2017 RESULT

2021 FORECAST

pc hold

WAVERLEY–FALL RIVER–BEAVER BANK - 2017 RESULT

2021 FORECAST

lib gain pc

YARMOUTH - 2017 RESULT

2021 FORECAST

lib hold