Current Projected Seat Count

LIBERAL

29 -1*

PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVES

20 +2*

NDP

6 -1*

*Compared to notional 2017 result under new boundaries

Chance of Outcomes

Overview

On 17 August 2021, Nova Scotia is electing all 55 members of its provincial House of Assembly. Members are elected by First Past the Post in single member districts. This election is being held under new boundaries which also increase the amount seats from 51 to 55. The new boundaries slightly benefit the Liberals who would have won 30 seats under the 2017 result instead of 27 that they did win under the old boundaries; the Progressive Conservatives would've won 18 instead of 17.

The Liberal Party have been in power in Nova Scotia since 2013, having won the last two elections and hold a comfortable lead over the Progressive Conservatives in the few opinion polls that have been released. The Progressive Conservatives are the second largest party and haven't won an election since 2006. The New Democratic Party won their first election in the province in 2009 but fell to just 7 seats in the subsequent election.

The current polling suggests that there will be little change in vote share since 2017 and our forecast for seats refelects this. However, our forecast does have 14 seats changing hands, a reflection a different regional changes that are expected. Cape Breton (the smaller northeastern island) has been trending significantly to the right in recent elections and it's not unlikely that the Liberals lose all their seats there. On the other hand, the Liberals are exptected to do partiuclalry well in the Halifax metro area; the Progressive Conservatives might well lose all their seats here.