PollCat

Norwegian General Election 2021

Current Projected Seat Count

labour

LABOUR

45 -4

conservative

CONSERVATIVE

33 -12

scentre

CENTRE

23 +4

progress

PROGRESS

21 -6

socleft

SOCIALIST LEFT

16 +5

red

RED

10 +9

liberal

LIBERAL

9 +1

green

GREEN

9 +8

christdem

CHRISTIAN DEMOCRAT

3 -5

Current Seat Count

Forecast Seat Count

Potential Coalitions

Overview

On 13 September 2021, Norway is holding a general election to its national unicameral parliament, the Storting. The Storting is composed of 169 members who represent 19 constituencies. 150 seats are elected directly at a constituency level and are allocated proportionally. The remaining 19 seats are nationally determined levelling seats (there is a threshold of 4% for parties to be eligible) designed to make the total number of seats for each party more representative of their national vote share. Each of these seats are then asigned to a constituency.

The current government of Norway is a right-wing minority coalition of the centre-right Conservative Party, the centrist Liberal Party, and the centre-right Christian Democratic Party. The right-wing populist Progress Party were in the government until 2020 when they withdrew their support in protest to the repatriation of a Norwegian citizen who had volunteered for ISIS. Since 2013, the Prime Minister of Norway has been Conservative Party leader, Erna Solberg, who has become the first Conservative Prime Minister to serve two full terms in office.

Current polling suggests that the right-wing bloc will lose their majority in the Storting. The left-bloc, formed of the centre-left social democratic Labour Party, the agrarian Centre party, the democratic socialist Socialist Left, and the far-left Red Party, is expected to get a majority. Labour have been the largest single party since 1927 and expected to remain so, however they are expected to lose seats which would make this their worst result since at least 2001 and possibly as far back as 1924. The Socialist Left, on the other hand, have made recent gains in the polls and are now on track for their second best result ever. The Centre Party saw a major surge in the polls in late 2020 and at their peak were even tied for largest party. That surge has since largely dissipated, however, and they are now only expected to a gain a few seats. The Red Party only got 1 seat in the last election, but as they are now polling past the 4% threshold for levelling seats, they are expected to gain a number of seats.

In a similar position to the Red Party is the centre-left Green Party, who don't consider themselves part of either bloc, but are ideologically somewhat similar to the Socialist Left. Despite not aligning themselves, they may still be involved in coalition talks, particularly if neither bloc reaches a majority. Also if coalition talks within the left bloc start to become difficult, the Green Party may be brought in as an alternative to one of the parties in the bloc.

Seat Projection by Constituency

Oslo National seats

ØSTFOLD - 2021 FORECAST

AKERSHUS - 2021 FORECAST

OSLO - 2021 FORECAST

HEDMARK - 2021 FORECAST

OPPLAND - 2021 FORECAST

BUSKERUD - 2021 FORECAST

VESTFOLD - 2021 FORECAST

TELEMARK - 2021 FORECAST

AUST-AGDER - 2021 FORECAST

VEST-AGDER - 2021 FORECAST

ROGALAND - 2021 FORECAST

HORDALAND - 2021 FORECAST

SOGN OG FJORDANE - 2021 FORECAST

MØRE OG ROMSDAL - 2021 FORECAST

SØR-TRØNDELAG - 2021 FORECAST

NORD TRØNDELAG - 2021 FORECAST

NORDLAND - 2021 FORECAST

TROMS ROMSA - 2021 FORECAST

FINNMARK - 2021 FORECAST