PollCat

London Local Elections 2022

Council and Mayoral Projections

Click on any of the boroughs to see more detailed information

Councils

Mayors

Current Projected Councillors

labour

LABOUR

1207 +68

conservative

CONSERVATIVES

385 -94

liberal-demorats

LIBERAL DEMOCRATS

157 +3

green

GREEN

30 +18

other

OTHER

38 +5

2018 Seat Count

Forecast Seat Count

Overview

On 5 May 2022, elections for local councils are being held across the UK, including in all of the 32 London boroughs. Labour currently have overall control of 21, while the Conservative have control of 7, and the Liberal Democrats have control of 3. No party has a majority in Havering.

25 of the boroughs are being elected under new ward boundaries. Of the other 7 boroughs, Bexley, Croydon, Redbridge, and Southwark had boundary changes in 2018 and Hackney, Kensington and Chlesea, and Tower Hamlets had boundary changes in 2014. As such, in the boroughs with boundary changes, the estimated number of seats will be compared with a notional figure of what the 2018 result would have been on the 2022 boundaries, though these notional figures have some room for error.

Our forecast currently has Labour winning the highest proportion of councillors ever in the capital, as well as the most amount of councils (they are forecast to gain Barnet, Wandsworth, and Westminster). The forecast number of councillors would also be the worst ever for the Conservatives, which was already the case in 2018, and would be joint with 1994 and 1998 for their lowest amount of councils, 4. The Liberal Democrats are expected to keep around the same amount of councillors, and will likely hold their three councils (though Richmond and Kingston are safer than Sutton is). Also on these figures, the Green Party would have more than double their previous highest amount of councillors in London.

There are also 5 councils which have a directly-elected mayor: Hackney, Lewisham, Newham, Tower Hamlets, and, for the first time, Croydon. The four incumbent mayors are from the Labour Party and they are all running for re-election. In Tower Hamlets, the former mayor, Lutfur Rahman, who had been found guilty of electoral fraud in the 2014 mayoral election, is standing to win back the office.

Croydon voted in a referedum last year to estbalish the position of a directly-elected mayor and so will see the inagural election for that posiiton alongside its council election. In every case so far in London, the winner of the mayoral election has been from the party that won the council election (the only exception to this being the 2014 Tower Hamlets mayoral election which, in any case, was declared void due to electoral fraud). As such, given that Labour are very likely to hold control of Croydon Council, it seems also likely that Labour will win the mayoral eleciton.


Methodology

Determing a notional amount of councillors for the new boundaries was done using Output Area (OA) 2011 Census Data. First it was determined which OAs belong to each of the new wards. Then in each borough, by working out multiple census demographics that are correlated with the main parties' vote share in each ward and how those demographics change from the old wards to the new wards, an approximation for the vote share in the new wards can be reached.

Projections in each ward were done first by getting an estimated London-wide figure. This is achieved in how the national opinion polls have changed since 2018, when these councils last had elections, and slightly adjusting it based on how the parties' relative performance in the capital changed in the 2021 London Assembly consituency vote. This change in the London-wide share of the vote is then applied to the boroughs, with the borough-wide vote being similarly adjusted by how each party's share of the vote in the borough relative to the London-wide vote changed between the 2016 and 2021 London Assembly constituency election. This same principle is then applied to each ward, based on how the vote share in the ward changed relative to the borough-wide vote.

The change is between 2016 and 2021 because the parties get different amounts of support in London Assembly elections than they do in council elections (the LibDems tend to do better in council elections whereas the Greens tend to do better at London Assembly elections). As a result, this projection has the potential to exaggerate certain trends in party support that occured in 2018. The projecitons also do not take into account local factors that may produce a different result to that might otherwise be expected based on other trends.