PollCat

Icelandic General Election 2021

Current Projected Seat Count

independence

INDEPENDENCE

15 -1

progressive

PROGRESSIVE

12 +4

social democratic alliance

SOCIAL DEMOCRATIC ALLIANCE

11 +4

pirate

PIRATE

6 nc

left green

LEFT GREEN

6 -5

reform

REFORM

5 +1

centre

CENTRE

3 -4

peoples

PEOPLE'S

3 -1

socialist

SOCIALIST

2 new

Current Seat Count

Forecast Seat Count

Potential Coalitions

Overview

On 25 September 2021, Iceland is holding a general election to its national unicameral parliament, the Althing. The Althing is composed of 63 members who represent 6 constituencies. 54 seats are elected directly at a constituency level and are allocated proportionally. The remaining 9 seats are nationally determined levelling seats designed to make the total number of seats for each party more representative of their national vote share. These seats are then allocated to constitieuncies.

The current government is a somewhat unusual coaltion of the 3 largest parties. The right-wing Independence Party, centre-right Progressive Party, and the left-wing eco-socialist Left-Green Movement. Current polling suggests that this governing coalition will lose its majority in the Althing, with Left-Green taking a number of losses. Alternative coalitions may have to be formed in this case. Independence Party and the Progressive Party might replace the Left-Green Movement with the centre-right liberal Reform Party and the centre-right conservative Centre Party (and possibly also the socially conservative but pro-welfare People's Party). On the other hand, there's the potential for a centre-right/centre-left coalition between Left-Green Movememnt, centre-left Social Democratic Alliance, Pirate Party, and Reform Party. A purely left-wing government — including Left-Green Movement, Social Democratic Alliance, and the left-wing Socialist Party — will likely be some way off a majority, even with the support of Pirate Party.

Seat Projection by Constituency

South West Reykjavik South Reykjavik North South North East North West
Hexagons with purple outlines are levelling seats and the constitiuency they are assigned can vary based on small changes.