Last Poll: 9 February 2023

Current Projected Seat Count

CDU

41

+11

SPD

32

-4

Grüne

29

-3

Die Linke

19

-5

AfD

16

+3

FDP

10

-2

CDU

41 +11

SPD

32 -4

Grüne

29 -3

Die Linke

19 -5

AfD

16 +3

FDP

10 -2

Total seat count can vary due to overhang seats. There are a minimum of 130 seats but 147 seats are used in the forecast as a comparison with the 2021 result.

Potential Coalitions

Overview

Germany's capital city, Berlin, is one of Germany's 16 states (Länder) which make up the Federal Republic. On 12 February 2023, voters in Berlin will elect the members of its state parliament, or Abgeordnetenhaus, as well as the its 12 borough councils.

Voters will elect at least 130 members to the Abgeordnetenhaus through a Mixed-Member Proportional Representation (MMPR) system where voters vote in both a single-member constituency (elected by First Past the Post) and a multi-member constituency where seats are allocated in such a way to make each party's total seat count proportional the share of the vote they recieved. In the event that the 130 seats end up being elected in such a way that the seat count is not proprtional to the state-wide vote share, then 'levelling' and 'overhang' seats are added until the proportion of seats matches the proportion of votes. There is a threshold of 5% of the vote needed to be eligible for seats allocated by proportional representation, though this threshold is ignored if a party wins in a single-member constituency.

This election is a 'repeat' of the 2021 regular election. A repeat eleciton was deemed necessary following numerous accounts of irregularities during the 2021 elections in Berlin.

The current government is a so-called 'Red-Red-Green' coalition between the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (Social Democratic Party of Germany, SPD), Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Alliance 90/The Greens, Grüne), and Die Linke (The Left), which has governed the city since 2016 (though the SPD has been invovled in every government since unification).

Current polling suggests that although the SPD may lose their status as the largest party (which they have had since 2001), the governing coalition will likely still hold a majority. The Christlich Demokratische Union (Christian Democratic Union, CDU) are currently leading in the polls but it is possible that this spot could be taken by Grüne and to a smaller extent the SPD.

Alternative coalition arrangements will likely also be possible, some of which may include the Freie Demokratische Partei (Free Democratic Party, FDP). The FDP, however, are polling close to the 5% threshold and so it is possible that they end up without any seats.

The Alternative für Deutschland (Alternative for Germany, AfD) continues to be shunned by other parties so it is unlikely they will be included in any government.

Single-Member Constituency Projections

Methodology

The overall seat count is determined through applying the Sainte-Laguë method to the 30-day average of opinion polls. Single-Member constituency projections are achieved by dividing each party's poll average by their 2021 result and multiplying that value to the percentage to the result in each constituency.